The Oscars nominations have just been released and of course there are some safe nominations and some obvious snubs. “Joker” did very well with 11 nominations, the most for any film this year. “1917”, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”, and “The Irishman” all got the second most nominations with 10 nominations each. Other films that did well include “Parasite”, “Jojo Rabbit” and “Marriage Story”.
But unfortunately, there were some obvious snubs as well. “The Farewell” and “Dolemite Is My Name” received zero nominations and that came as a surprise as those two films were getting a fair share of nominations in the past awards show. Other snubs include “Frozen 2” for Best Animated Feature, no female directors getting any nominations, and no nomination for Jennifer Lopez for “Hustlers”.
With that being said, here are the nominations for the Oscars and my thoughts and predicted winners on the top categories.
Best Picture
Ford v Ferrari
The Irishman
Jojo Rabbit
Joker
Little Women
Marriage Story
1917
Once Upon a Time … in Hollywood
Parasite
Who will win- “1917”. “1917” was on no one’s radar at the beginning of awards season and then last Sunday the Golden Globes shocked us all by naming “1917” as Best Motion Picture Drama. Ad “1917” certainly fits the bill as a Best Picture winner. Consider the fact that almost 20 years ago, the Academy infamously snubbed “Saving Private Ryan” in favor for “Shakespeare in Love”. I think the Academy will want to redeem themselves by awarding “1917” as Best Picture, in a year where other films certainly deserve the top prize.
Who should win- “Parasite”. “Parasite” has been named as the best film by numerous critics and its a film that takes storytelling to another level. “Parasite” would be the obvious choice for the top prize but consider the fact that last year’s front runner, “Roma”, another forgeign language film, lost the top prize in favor to another safe film, “Green Book”. Yes, “Parasite” should win but the Academy doesn’t have the guts to take a risk and give the prize to a foreign language film.
Potential upset: “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”. The Academy loves films about Hollywood. In the past ten years, films such as “Argo”, “The Artist”, and “Birdman” were all about the film industry and won the top prize. A case can certainly be made for “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”, a film about Hollywood and has 10 nominations under its belt. Those two factors alone make this film a contender to watch out for.
Best Director
Bong Joon Ho, Parasite
Sam Mendes, 1917
Todd Phillips, Joker
Martin Scorsese, The Irishman
Quentin Tarantino, Once Upon a Time in Hollywood
Who will win- Sam Mendes for “1917”. Once again, “1917” was on no one’s radar before last Sunday’s Golden Globes and now its the film to beat. Mendes is certainly a safe bet and as a past Oscar winner, he can get enough votes to get the prize. While Mendes did a tremendous job with his direction, there are certainly other directors that deserve the award.
Who should win and the potential upset- Bong Joon Ho for “Parasite”. Bong Joon Ho should win and can be the shocker of the night. A South Korean filmmaker schooled these veteran directors on how to tell a story that takes the audience along for a ride. For his efforts, Bong Joon Ho could win the award and of course he should. Keep an eye out for the Director’s Guild Award, as the winner of that award will certainly be the bellwether for the Oscars.
Best Actor
Antonio Banderas (Pain and Glory)
Leonardo DiCaprio (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Adam Driver (Marriage Story)
Joaquin Phoenix (Joker)
Jonathan Pryce (The Two Popes)
Who will win- Joaquin Phoenix for “Joker”. The moment we saw the trailer for “Joker”, we all knew Phoenix was going to win the Oscar. The release of the film only further proved our point that Phoenix was going to win. And now that he has been winning numerous awards for the role as the Joker, its Phoenix’s award to win. But hey, we all thought Glenn Close was going to win this time last year, yet the Oscars pulled a surprise and gave the win to Olivia Coleman. Who’s to say that something like that won’t happen this year.
Who should win and the potential upset- Adam Driver for “Marriage Story”. We all know that Phoenix deserves the win but instead I am going to make the case for Adam Driver in “Marriage Story”. Driver delivers a strong performance as a New York director having to fly out to LA constantly to win a divorce battle. The film almost resembles another well known divorce film, “Kramer vs Kramer”, which won Dustin Hoffman an Oscar. Driver could walk away with an award, if Academy voters feel like the billion dollar box office is prize already for “Joker”.
Best Actress
Cynthia Erivo (Harriet)
Scarlett Johansson (Marriage Story)
Saoirse Ronan (Little Women)
Charlize Theron (Bombshell)
Renée Zellweger (Judy)
Who will win- Renee Zellweger for “Judy”. As mentioned before, the Academy loves films about Hollywood and they love actors playing real life people. “Judy” is no exception and considering her wins in the past awards show, having Zellweger win is a safe bet.
Who should win- Scarelett Johansson for “Marriage Story”. Johansson makes Oscars history as being one of the few actors to get double nominations in a single year. And rightfully so, as not only did she star in two highly acclaimed films that received both received Best Picture nominations, but also starred in the highest grossing film of all time, “Avengers: Endgame”. Walking away with an Oscar on Oscar Sunday would be a cherry on top for an amazing year she’s had.
Potential upset- Saoirse Ronan for “Little Woman”. At only 25 years old, Ronan has already 4 Oscar nominations under her belt. That’s an impressive feat for a young actor. The Academy likes to reward actors with multiple nominations and zero wins and Ronan can make the case for that. But Ronan has a long career ahead of her and a win is certainly in her future.
Best Supporting Actor
Brad Pitt (Once Upon a Time in Hollywood)
Al Pacino (The Irishman)
Joe Pesci (The Irishman)
Tom Hanks (A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood)
Anthony Hopkins (The Two Popes)
Who will win- Brad Pitt for “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”. This is an interesting category. All the actors in this category have technically won an Oscar before, whether it be for acting or producing. The last time all actors in a category were past winners was in 2012 in this same category. Now with that being said, “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” was not my favorite film of 2019, but Brad Pitt stole the show, especially the last 10 minutes of the film. Pitt does have an Oscar for producing, but its time he has one for acting.
Who should win- Tom Hanks for “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood”. Hanks as always gives a strong performance and “A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood” is no exception. He excellently becomes Fred Rogers and should win an award for doing so. But Hanks is already a two time Oscar winner and its rare for actors to win three or more Oscars.
Potential upset: Joe Pesci for “The Irishman”. Pesci was in retirement and came out of it for legendary director Martin Scorsese. A story line like that can be relate able to the Academy voters who are usually older.
Best Supporting Actress
Kathy Bates (Richard Jewell)
Laura Dern (Marriage Story)
Scarlett Johansson (Jojo Rabbit)
Florence Pugh (Little Women)
Margot Robbie (Bombshell)
Who will win and should win- Laura Dern for “Marriage Story”. Dern has been winning all the awards and having Dern win is the obvious win. Dern plays a lawyer who fights tough and would say anything to win a case. While I enjoyed Adam Driver and Scarlett Johnansson’s performance more than Laura Dern, this probably the only win for the film.
Potential upset- Florence Pugh for “Little Women”. Florence Pugh has had a big year with releases of “Fighting With My Family” and “Midsommar”. Just like Johansson, who is also nominated in this category, Pugh winning an Oscar would make this Pugh’s year.
Best Original Screenplay
1917, Sam Mendes & Krysty Wilson-Cairns
Knives Out, Rian Johnson
Marriage Story, Noah Baumbach
Once Upon a Time in Hollywood, Quentin Tarantino
Parasite, Bong Joon Ho & Jin Won Han
Who will win- Quentin Tarantino for “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood”. Tarantino has proved to be one of the greatest screenwriters of his generation and probably of all time. Tarantino not only won the Golden Globe, but also won the Critics Choice Award in this category. This is Tarantino’s award to lose.
Who should win- Bong Joon Ho and Jin Won Han for “Parasite”. It’s no secret that I love “Parasite” and it should win at every chance it has. As I have mentioned before “Parasite” takes its story telling to another level. What other film starts off in a light and funny mood and ends in a dark and depressing mood? Bong Joon Ho and Jin Won Han’s screenplay was the best of the year and should win this award.
Potential upset- Noah Baumbach for “Marriage Story”. Baumbach’s screenplay shows the raw emotions a couple goes through. “Marriage Story” is a actor’s film and the screenplay is the foundation for the strong acting.
Best Adapted Screenplay
The Irishman, Steven Zaillian
Jojo Rabbit, Taika Waititi
Joker, Todd Phillips & Scott Silver
Little Women, Greta Gerwig
The Two Popes, Anthony McCarten
Who will win- Steven Zaillian for “The Irishman”. This category could be the only win for “The Irishman”, a film with 10 nominations. The Academy likes to spread out their wins and “The Irishman” has a strong screenplay that features some of the best actors working today.
Who should win- Todd Phillips and Scott Silver for “Joker”. “Joker” is not your typical comic book film, but instead a character study on how several terrible days make for a villain in the making. Who ever thought that the “Joker” a character who commits murder, would be a sympathetic character?
Potential upset- Greta Gerwig for “Little Women”. After being snubbed for Best Director, this could be Gerwig’s only win this year. But “Little Women” has been adapted numerous times over the years, so having Gerwig win for a screenplay that has been adapted already could turn voters away.
Best International Feature Film
Corpus Christi (Poland)
Honeyland (North Macedonia)
Les Misérables (France)
Pain and Glory (Spain)
Parasite (South Korea)
Who will win and should win- “Parasite”. It has the Best Picture nomination and its one of the best of 2019. It’s going to win this category, no doubt about it.
Best Animated Feature
How to Train Your Dragon: The Hidden World
I Lost My Body
Klaus
Missing Link
Toy Story 4
Who will and should win- “Toy Story 4”. Pixar is no stranger to winning this category and “Toy Story 4” could win this year. Was it the best film in the series, of course not but still had beautiful animation.
Potential upset- “Missing Link”. The film that won the Golden Globe, “Missing Link” has momentum going into the Oscars.